Foundational probability concepts: sample spaces, events, conditional probability, independence, and Bayes theorem.
These are the key learning objectives for General Probability on SOA Exam P. Paraphrased from the public SOA syllabus — we recommend also checking the current syllabus on soa.org before your exam sitting.
Apply set-theoretic operations to events and compute probabilities of unions, intersections, and complements
Use the law of total probability and Bayes theorem to compute conditional and posterior probabilities
Identify whether events are independent and compute joint probabilities of independent events
Solve combinatorial counting problems involving permutations and combinations
Upload your ACTEX Exam P digital edition, scanned ASM pages, TIA handouts, or your own notes. exclam.ai extracts the General Probability sections and generates flashcards automatically.
Generate multiple-choice quizzes specifically on General Probability. Weak questions get re-surfaced until you get them right consistently.
Because General Probability is 10–17% of your exam, losing it during review costs you. FSRS brings it back at the optimal moment.
SOA Exam P has 3 topic areas. General Probability is weighted at approximately 10–17% of the exam — here is where it sits relative to the other topics.
| Topic area | Weight |
|---|---|
| → General Probability | 10–17% |
| Univariate Random Variables | 40–47% |
| Multivariate Random Variables | 40–47% |
Discrete and continuous random variables, probability mass and density functions, expected value, variance, and common parametric distributions.
Joint, marginal, and conditional distributions; covariance and correlation; sums and functions of random variables; and the central limit theorem.
Upload your ACTEX Exam P digital edition, scanned ASM pages, TIA handouts, or your own notes. exclam.ai generates a fully guided study plan with adaptive flashcards and quizzes for this topic.